Readings from the field.
Category analysis built on data we've read ourselves, with a source under every number.
When a paper puts a number on the future, the next one grades it.
The 2028 wave
Spirits is sitting in a gap between Millennials and Gen Z. Relief starts when the largest cohort in US history turns 21 in 2028. Their money arrives on a different schedule.
The state of tequila
Record units behind falling prices. In the same year, Americans paid less per drink and bought more drinks. Plus a six-move playbook for craft operators.
High proof: the segment changes hands
High-proof tequila kept growing while the category shrank, and the growth moved to the majors. The proof settled at 100, the bottle got cheaper, and the additive-free set lost dollars for the first time.
After the peak
Tequila production peaked in 2022 and US revenue fell for the first time in 2025. Craft beer and whisky have both stood here. What repeats, what does not, and how long the pause runs.
The innovation freeze
479 new tequilas launched in 2022. Nine launched last quarter, and the shelf never got smaller. Whiskey ran this arc first, so it shows what comes next.
The allocation thaw
For a decade the most hunted bourbons lived on lottery lists. That era is ending, and the shelf is where the glut is paying out. Availability up, price holding.
The rest of the 2026 library
The additive-free endgame. The $30 ceiling. The premium unwind. The hundred-proof turn. The age-statement dividend. The mini economy. The flavor treadmill. Plus full category reviews for both categories.
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