The headline reading

The category's headline growth hides a split market: distribution is still expanding faster than demand in the mid-tier, while velocity — the dollars each point of distribution actually earns — is concentrating in fewer brands. The review reads that split four ways:

$/TDP · VELOCITY

Dollars per point of total distribution — the first number we read on any brand. It separates demand from mere presence on the shelf.

TIER MIGRATION

Where the growth dollars actually land by price tier — and which tiers are borrowing growth from promotion depth rather than demand.

DOOR ECONOMICS

The distribution math: at what velocity a new door adds value, and the threshold below which expansion quietly dilutes the brand.

BEAR / BASE / BULL

Probability-weighted scenarios that turn the forecast debate into a decision — each with the trigger metrics that tell you which path you're on.

FIG. 04 · VELOCITY, $/TDP · INDEXED The brand outruns its shelf.
L52W · NIELSEN
12 8 4 Q3 Q4 Q1 +38% CATEGORY BRAND
SOURCE: NIELSEN SCAN, TOTAL US XAOC · INDEXED · BRAND ANONYMIZED

That gap — brand velocity climbing while category velocity flattens — is the review's core finding. It reprices every distribution decision: at this reading, the subject brand earns new doors; most of its tier does not…

Distribution is a claim. Velocity is the proof — and it reprices every door you're about to buy.

THE EXCERPT ENDS HERE

The full review is client work — and stays that way.

Twenty-five pages: the velocity map by tier, price and pack dynamics, the door-economics thresholds, Bear/Base/Bull scenario models with trigger metrics, and channel-by-channel retail recommendations. We don't publish client deliverables. We build them.

Get one built for your category

CATEGORY REVIEWS · SCENARIO MODELS · SALES STORIES

Published by Crafted Proof — marketing intelligence for adult-beverage and CPG brands. Category reviews, scenario models, and sales stories are built as proprietary client deliverables; excerpts are shared where the category benefits. The proof is in the brand.